Tales of Terror and Mystery
The Man with the Watches
Inaword,insteadoftakingknowneventsanddeducingfromthemwhathasoccurred,wemustbuildupafancifulexplanationifitwillonlybeconsistentwithknownevents.Wecanthentestthisexplanationbyanyfreshfactswhichmayarise.Iftheyallfitintotheirplaces,theprobabilityisthatweareupontherighttrack,andwitheachfreshfactthisprobabilityincreasesinageometricalprogressionuntiltheevidencebecomesfinalandconvincing.
"Now,thereisonemostremarkableandsuggestivefactwhichhasnotmetwiththeattentionwhichitdeserves.ThereisalocaltrainrunningthroughHarrowandKing’sLangley,whichistimedinsuchawaythattheexpressmusthaveovertakenitatorabouttheperiodwheniteaseddownitsspeedtoeightmilesanhouronaccountoftherepairsoftheline.Thetwotrainswouldatthattimebetravellinginthesamedirectionatasimilarrateofspeedanduponparallellines.Itiswithineveryone’sexperiencehow,undersuchcircumstances,theoccupantofeachcarriagecanseeveryplainlythepassengersintheothercarriagesoppositetohim.ThelampsoftheexpresshadbeenlitatWillesden,sothateachcompartmentwasbrightlyilluminated,andmostvisibletoanobserverfromoutside.
"Now,thesequenceofeventsasIreconstructthemwouldbeafterthisfashion.Thisyoungmanwiththeabnormalnumberofwatcheswasaloneinthecarriageoftheslowtrain.Histicket,withhispapersandglovesandotherthings,was,wewillsuppose,ontheseatbesidehim.HewasprobablyanAmerican,andalsoprobablyamanofweakintellect.
